COVID-19 loan guarantee schemes performance data as at 30 June 2023
This publication is the quarterly performance update on the COVID-19 loan guarantee schemes, inclusive of the Bounce Back Loans Scheme (BBLS), Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS) and Coronavirus Large Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CLBILS).
As part of the government’s ongoing commitment to provide transparency on performance, data points have been aligned across schemes, removing duplication where appropriate and improving granularity by introducing lender level data on all portfolios. For consistency, scheme level data is still available in the aggregate totals included in the enhanced tables.
Additionally, the data tables (1-12) and figures (1,2 &3) for this release are available in downloadable format with accompanying notes. When reviewing the data, please refer to the definitions and limitations included in the publication to enable accurate interpretation of the data.
Headline figures (aggregated figures across all schemes):
£77.03 billion: the total drawn value
£30.93 billion: the outstanding balance of total drawn loans making payments on schedule
£17.23 billion: the amount that has been fully repaid by borrowers
£2.23 billion: the outstanding balance of loans in arrears that haven’t yet progressed to defaulted
£0.75 billion: the outstanding balance of loans defaulted that haven’t yet progressed to claimed
£1.13 billion: the outstanding balance of loans claimed that haven’t yet progressed to settled
£7.39 billion: the total settled amount (the amount paid out to lenders under all schemes’ guarantee agreements)
£1.69 billion: the total drawn value flagged by lenders as suspected fraud (BBLS and CBILS) *
BBLS accounts for the majority of the COVID-19 loan schemes, by both volume and total value of loans
(See table 1, table 6, & table 10) for lender level details of outstanding balances/final amounts for BBLS, CBILS and CLBILS respectively)
*There are no CLBILS loans subject to the guarantee that have been flagged as suspected fraud by lenders.
Bounce Back Loan Scheme (BBLS) performance data:
Businesses have drawn a total of £ 46.63 billion (see table 3). 76.30% of BBLS facilities are either fully repaid (11.53% – up from 11.06% in the previous publication) or on schedule (64.77% – down from 66.53% in the previous publication). 5.55% of all scheme facilities are currently in arrears (but not yet progressed to defaulted) and 1.31% are currently defaulted (but have not yet progressed to claimed by lenders). The government guarantee has so far been settled on 14.52% of the total BBLS facilities (see table 2 & figure 1).
Lenders have flagged £1.65 billion of the £46.63 billion of BBLS drawn value as suspected fraud (see table 3). The data shows that, of the £6.89 billion total settled amount as at 30 June 2023, £1.27 billion has been paid out to lenders against loans with a suspected fraud flag (see table 4). Since fraudulent loans are likely to be among the first to default, it is assumed that the proportion of guarantee claims linked to loans with a suspected fraud flag should decline as the scheme matures, although this will only become apparent over time.
Figure 1: Furthest life event reached by volume (percentage of facilities) – BBLS
Notes on figure 1
Fully repaid is the final life event but is displayed first in this figure for readability.
Figure 1 shows the volume of BBLS loans, per lender, with the furthest life event reached. This data adds up to 100% because it is based on the volume of loans drawing on individual loan level data from lenders which reports the status of each loan – rather than the value of the loans (where, there may be small discrepancies in the total depending on the precise payment status of the loans).
PAY AS YOU GROW (PAYG):
33.06% of BBLS businesses have used one or more of the Pay as You Grow options offered under the scheme (up 1.06% since the previous publication). These options give greater flexibility to businesses that wish to manage their loan repayments more effectively by offering a variety of options to structure their repayments (see table 5).
Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS) performance data:
Businesses have drawn a total of £25.86 billion (see table 8). 92.65% of CBILS facilities are either fully repaid (30.05% – up from 26.80% in the previous publication) or on schedule (62.60% – down from 66.68% in the previous publication). 1.44% of all scheme facilities are currently in arrears (but not yet progressed to default), and 1.31% are currently in default (but have not yet progressed to a claim by lenders). The government guarantee has so far been settled on 3.70% of the total CBILS facilities (see table 7 & figure 2).
Lenders have flagged £0.04 billion of the £25.86 billion of CBILS drawn value as suspected fraud (see table 8). The data shows that, of the £0.48 billion total settled amount as at 30 June 2023, £0.02 billion has been paid out to lenders against loans with a suspected fraud flag (see table 9).
Figure 2: Furthest life event reached by volume (percentage of facilities) – CBILS
Notes on figure 2
Fully repaid is the final life event, but is displayed first in this figure for readability
Figure 2 shows the volume of CBILS loans, per lender, with the furthest life event reached. This data adds up to 100% because it is based on the volume of loans drawing on individual loan level data from lenders which reports the status of each loan – rather than the value of the loans (where, there may be small discrepancies in the total depending on the precise payment status of the loans).
Coronavirus Large Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CLBILS) performance data:
Businesses have drawn a total of £ 4.54 billion (see table 12). 97.92% of CLBILS facilities are either fully repaid (60.97% – up from 54.23% in the previous publication) or on schedule (36.94%, down from 44.11% in the previous publication). 0.42% of all scheme facilities are currently in arrears (but not yet progressed to default) and 0.28% are currently in default (but have not yet progressed to a claim by lenders). The government guarantee has so far been settled on 0.97% of the total CLBILS facilities (see table 11 & figure 3).
There are no CLBILS loans subject to the guarantee that have been flagged as suspected fraud by lenders.
Figure 3: Furthest life event reached by volume (percentage of facilities) – CLBILS
Notes on figure 3
Fully repaid is the final life event, but is displayed first in this figure for readability
Figure 3 shows the volume of CLBILS loans, per lender, with the furthest life event reached. This data adds up to 100% because it is based on the volume of loans drawing on individual loan level data from lenders which reports the status of each loan – rather than the value of the loans (where, there may be small discrepancies in the total depending on the precise payment status of the loans).
Notes on suspected fraud reporting
The figures presented in this publication are indicative levels of suspected fraud identified as at 30 June 2023. These data points are reliant on lenders’ fraud tolerance thresholds. A loan facility is marked as suspected fraud where a lender has determined that there are sufficient grounds to suspect that fraud may have occurred, and further investigation is warranted.
Lenders are continually adapting their processes for identifying and combatting fraud to counter new methods employed by bad actors. As such, figures for suspected fraud will vary from quarter to quarter, both for individual lenders and the overall schemes.
It is important to note that ‘suspected fraud’ will not necessarily equate to actual fraud in the scheme and the marking of a loan as ‘suspected fraud’ within the scheme portal does not necessarily mean that there has been any proven wrongdoing on the part of the borrower. Lenders are not law enforcement agencies or investigatory organisations. Ultimately it is for law enforcement and the courts to determine if fraud has been committed.
The value for ‘claimed’ is the amount claimed under the guarantee.
The value for ‘settled’ is the amount paid out under the guarantee.
The value for ‘fully repaid’ is the full loan amount.
The value for all other life events is the outstanding balance.
Arrears – loans with missed repayments are deemed to be in arrears. Loans are tracked in 30-, 60- and 90-day cohorts by lenders to manage risk. Lenders report monthly arrears updates through the scheme portal on a “best endeavours” basis. Some lenders submit arrears via the automated (API) functionality in the scheme portal, but it is not always possible for smaller lenders to integrate with this functionality so arrears are sometimes entered manually. Loans in arrears that have moved to a later life-cycle stage (such as defaulted) will be reported in the later life-cycle stage but may still carry arrears. At the time of this event occurring, this is an actual balance, and not estimated.
Claimed – the lender has submitted a claim under the guarantee. Loans sit in the claimed status while the British Business Bank awaits/processes the invoice for the claim and runs relevant checks. Under the terms of the guarantee, lenders may submit claims quarterly and then the claim must be paid within 30 days of receipt of the claims invoice.
Claimed value (reason fraud) – this indicates suspected fraud at the time of submitting a claim. Not all these facilities will materialise as actual fraud. Lenders give a reason for a claim being made when they submit a claim on the guarantee. Currently, there are only two reasons a lender can provide for submitting a claim – either credit loss or fraud. This is separate to the process of marking a loan as suspected fraud and lenders cannot change the reason for a claim being made once the claim is settled. This value is the amount claimed under the respective guarantee agreement for all loans that have had a claim made where the claim reason is fraud.
Defaulted – loans where the lender has issued a formal demand to the borrower. At the time of this occurring, this is an actual balance, and not estimated.
Drawn value – the total loan amount for loans which have been drawn down by the borrower.
Facility or facilities – refers to a COVID-19 Loan Scheme facility or facilities, being either a term loan facility, a revolving credit facility, an invoice finance facility or an asset finance facility (as applicable) made available by an accredited lender to a borrower.
Fully repaid – the loan is considered closed as there is no further outstanding balance on the loan (the borrower has repaid the full amount).
Loan – includes term loan facilities only for BBLS but for CBILS & CLBILS this also includes, for certain lenders, revolving credit, asset finance and invoice finance facilities.
On schedule – the loan is being repaid as expected, including loans for which repayment is not yet due. The government paid a Business Interruption Payment (BIP) to cover the first 12 months of interest due on a BBLS loan. For BBLS, monthly principal repayments were not due to commence until the end of the 12-month period.
The government also paid a BIP for CBILS which covered the first 12 months of interest and upfront fees on the facility. There were no features similar to BBLS in CBILS and CLBILS in relation to 12-month payment holidays for monthly principal payments.
Outstanding balance – when used to describe on schedule is a projected figure based on the amortisation profile of individual loans. It uses existing data points to identify the remaining loan value but is limited due to some lender data not being available.
% of drawn value – a lender’s total drawn value as a percentage of total drawn value in the scheme.
Scheme portal – the database hosted by The British Business Bank as part of its role in administering the schemes. It is used by all accredited scheme lenders to report on guaranteed loans and make claims under the guarantee agreement. The reporting requirements have evolved over time. The portal is updated at various points in a loan lifecycle as reported by lenders.
The scheme portal is the system of record for all facilities delivered through the COVID-19 debt guarantee schemes (which includes BBLS, CBILS and CLBILS). Under the terms of the guarantee agreements, accredited lenders must submit facility level data into the portal on a periodic basis to allow British Business Bank to track the exposure of His Majesty’s Government (HMG) to the portfolio.
Settled – settlement has been made following a lender making a claim. Once the guarantee claim is processed and payment is released, the loan is marked as settled on the scheme portal.
80% of the drawn value for CBILS and CLBILS is guaranteed, compared to 100% of the drawn value of BBLS (in each case minus any payments and recoveries made in respect of the loan). The guarantee covers interest for BBLS, CLBILS and for the revolving credit and invoice finance variants of CBILS. All businesses remain responsible for repaying their loans under the schemes and are fully liable for the debt before, as well as after, a claim is made on the guarantee.
Suspected fraud – drawn facilities which are currently flagged as suspected fraud by lenders. This flag can be added or removed by lenders at any point, and only the latest position can be provided. Suspected fraud value is a subset of the drawn value.
Suspected fraud value – value of drawn loans which are currently flagged as suspected fraud by lenders.
Limitations and further considerations
The following should be considered in relation to the data:
Data is as at 30 June 2023, unless otherwise stated, and extracted on the 17 July 2023, from the information continuously submitted to the scheme portal by accredited scheme lenders. The accuracy of the data in the scheme portal is dependent on lenders submitting accurate and timely data and the data is not real-time.
The terms of and the timing of the BBLS, CBILS, and CLBILS was exceptional and may not be representative of the lenders’ risk appetites, their general loan credit quality, or their default experience on their business-as-usual lending.
Given the size of the BBLS, CBILS and CLBILS, the large numbers of loans, and the speed at which they were offered and drawn down, data being collected remains fluid and subject to refining and correction over time.
The timing and level of claims made under the guarantee will vary according to a lender’s business model and the characteristics of their customers (e.g., repayment options offered, age of businesses, whether BBLS, CBILS or CLBILS loans were offered to new customers or only the lender’s existing customers).
The scale of the schemes means some lenders may be more advanced than others in operationalising their claims and recoveries processes which could lead to figures being distorted initially but this will stabilise over time. Lenders may submit guarantee claims quarterly in line with the terms of the guarantee.
Lenders report arrears at different stages in a loan life cycle. What one lender may report as arrears another lender may not (for example some lenders will only report arrears at 90 days past due while others report arrears at 31 days past due), as such, comparisons should not be drawn from arrears data.
The guarantee agreements do not prescribe when a lender should serve demand on a borrower. This means that some lenders’ defaults will appear higher than others, but this may be because of their approach to the timing (amongst other things) as opposed to an indication of borrower behaviour and/or any overall management issues of their book.
Claims on the guarantee may subsequently benefit from recovery receipts achieved at a later date (which are not reflected in the figures above), in which case the net cost to government would reduce. All borrowers remain liable to repay the debt after a claim has been made under the BBLS, CBILS and CLBILS guarantee agreements.
For the BBLS portfolio lenders may have responsibly fulfilled scheme requirements but still experience a high comparative level of borrower defaults given the relaxation of credit or affordability checks.
The number of loans claimed, and value, is not necessarily related to the amount of fraud in a lender’s portfolio.
All data excludes loans where a scheme guarantee has been removed and the facility is no longer covered by a scheme.
The British Business Bank periodically audits the lenders for compliance with the scheme guarantee agreements. The audit programme includes audits of lenders’ submissions to the scheme portal. However, The British Business Bank does not verify the data in the scheme portal against the data in the lender’s systems (the “source data”) on a real time basis. The accuracy of the reported data in this publication is therefore dependent on accredited scheme lenders reporting the source data they hold on to their systems into the scheme portal in a timely and accurate manner. The British Business Bank and the Department for Business and Trade can therefore make no warranties as to whether the source data has been reported accurately.
Any party choosing to rely on the data detailed in this release (or any part of it) does so at its own risk. To the fullest extent permitted by law, neither the British Business Bank nor the Department for Business and Trade assumes any responsibility or liability to any other party in respect of this data.
The data presented here will be refreshed quarterly and the next release will include data as at 30 September 2023.
Further information on BBLS, CBILS and CLBILS is available on the British Business Bank website.